Varzim vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.1%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.3%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
4.8%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
13.2%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
8.7%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
24.9%
55.9%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
14.1%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
25.8%
0-2
11.3%
1-3
5%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.3%
0-3
6.1%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.4%
0-4
2.4%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 2009 |
VAR
1 - 2
SAN
28%
28%
44%
|
58 | 66 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2009 |
SCF
2 - 1
VAR
56%
24%
20%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2009 |
VAR
1 - 0
CHA
53%
26%
21%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 2009 |
EST
1 - 1
VAR
62%
22%
16%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
FEI
4 - 0
VAR
54%
26%
20%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 2009 |
BEL
0 - 1
NAC
37%
27%
35%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2009 |
NAC
2 - 0
VIT
55%
25%
21%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2009 |
AUS
1 - 1
NAC
57%
23%
20%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 2009 |
NAC
2 - 1
MAR
55%
24%
21%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2009 |
NAC
2 - 3
BRE
23%
23%
54%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | 0 |