Poggibonsi vs Montevarchi Calcio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
22.9%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-22%
-22%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
4º
11º
7º
29
6º
16º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
51 | 75 |
1º
|
96% | |
|
4º
|
39 | 63 |
2º
|
41.5% | |
|
2º
|
41 | 62 |
3º
|
29% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 56 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 56 |
5º
|
24% | |
|
11º
|
28 | 49 |
6º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
31 | 49 |
7º
|
17% | |
|
|
10º
|
29 | 47 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 47 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 46 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
9º
|
29 | 44 |
11º
|
15.5% | |
|
12º
|
28 | 43 |
12º
|
13.5% | |
|
13º
|
26 | 41 |
13º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
24 | 39 |
14º
|
16% | |
|
16º
|
21 | 35 |
15º
|
21.5% | |
|
15º
|
22 | 34 |
16º
|
22% | |
|
17º
|
16 | 28 |
17º
|
38.5% | |
|
18º
|
15 | 27 |
18º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
14% | 8% |
|
Mid-table
|
82.5% | 74% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
3.5% | 17.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poggibonsi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
OST
1 - 0
USP
20%
25%
56%
|
50 | 39 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
USP
0 - 1
GRO
38%
26%
36%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
FEZ
1 - 3
USP
15%
23%
62%
|
49 | 34 | 15 | +1 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
USP
2 - 1
SPO
62%
21%
17%
|
49 | 44 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
USP
0 - 1
FUL
67%
19%
15%
|
49 | 33 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Montevarchi Calcio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
MON
1 - 2
ORV
56%
23%
21%
|
48 | 44 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
GGV
0 - 1
MON
36%
26%
38%
|
47 | 35 | 12 | +1 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
MON
0 - 1
SIE
40%
26%
34%
|
47 | 51 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
MON
2 - 1
FLA
55%
23%
22%
|
47 | 43 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
MON
3 - 2
OST
65%
20%
15%
|
46 | 38 | 8 | +1 |