Alençon vs AG Caennaise analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.8%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
18.3%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-27%
-13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
13
9º
14º
12º
12
1º
13º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
25 | 52 |
1º
|
70% | |
|
5º
|
23 | 44 |
2º
|
14.5% | |
|
3º
|
24 | 44 |
3º
|
15% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 42 |
4º
|
14.5% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 41 |
5º
|
11% | |
|
9º
|
19 | 40 |
6º
|
13.5% | |
|
7º
|
21 | 39 |
7º
|
17% | |
|
6º
|
22 | 39 |
8º
|
18% | |
|
4º
|
23 | 38 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
14º
|
12 | 28 |
10º
|
19% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 26 |
11º
|
22.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
13 | 25 |
12º
|
18% | |
|
|
12º
|
12 | 24 |
13º
|
19% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 23 |
14º
|
38% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
10.5% | 4.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
11.5% | 8% |
|
Relegation
|
78% | 87.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alençon
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2024 |
GIN
2 - 0
ALE
14%
18%
68%
|
33 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
AJA
2 - 1
ALE
50%
23%
26%
|
33 | 35 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
ALE
2 - 1
CAE
37%
23%
40%
|
32 | 35 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
CHA
2 - 2
ALE
40%
23%
37%
|
32 | 27 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
ALE
0 - 2
DIV
53%
22%
25%
|
33 | 30 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
AG Caennaise
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2024 |
BAS
2 - 0
AGC
59%
20%
21%
|
24 | 32 | 8 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
AGC
1 - 4
CAE
26%
22%
52%
|
25 | 34 | 9 | -1 |
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
DIV
0 - 1
AGC
70%
17%
13%
|
24 | 34 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
SAI
5 - 0
AGC
48%
24%
28%
|
25 | 28 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
AGC
1 - 1
GRQ
72%
16%
13%
|
25 | 17 | 8 | 0 |