Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 0-4
Universitario Deportes vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
21.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.7%
2-0
3.2%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
5.7%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
54.8%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
9.7%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
16.8%
0-3
5.7%
1-4
2.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
8.7%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.5%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.2%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Universitario Deportes
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 2015 |
UNI
1 - 1
UTC
50%
26%
24%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2015 |
ALI
1 - 2
UNI
44%
27%
29%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2015 |
UNI
2 - 3
COM
34%
29%
37%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Aug. 2015 |
DEF
3 - 0
UNI
60%
24%
17%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2015 |
UNI
0 - 0
SPC
28%
28%
44%
|
67 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2015 |
DEF
2 - 0
REN
64%
22%
14%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2015 |
DAN
2 - 3
DEF
37%
26%
37%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 2015 |
DEF
1 - 2
SUD
60%
24%
17%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2015 |
DEF
3 - 1
PEÑ
36%
27%
37%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2015 |
DEF
3 - 0
UNI
60%
24%
17%
|
76 | 67 | 9 | +1 |