Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 4-0
Univ de Chile vs Liga de Quito analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.3%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.6%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.8%
19.9%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.3%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Univ de Chile
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
UCH
3 - 0
UNI
57%
22%
21%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2011 |
LIG
0 - 1
UCH
57%
22%
21%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
UNI
0 - 1
UCH
51%
23%
26%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2011 |
UCH
2 - 0
VAS
40%
25%
35%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
ACS
1 - 1
UCH
51%
24%
25%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Liga de Quito
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec. 2011 |
NAC
2 - 1
LIG
54%
24%
22%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2011 |
LIG
0 - 1
UCH
57%
22%
21%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2011 |
LIG
0 - 0
OLM
68%
20%
13%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | -1 |
| 02 Dec. 2011 |
EME
2 - 1
LIG
45%
28%
27%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2011 |
VEL
0 - 1
LIG
58%
24%
18%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | +1 |