Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 4-5
U. Católica vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.9%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.8%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.3%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
31%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
8.7%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.3%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.6%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2013 |
UCO
2 - 0
SWA
47%
24%
29%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2013 |
UCO
2 - 0
CUR
86%
10%
4%
|
76 | 50 | 26 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2013 |
UCO
5 - 1
CSD
63%
22%
16%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2013 |
IQU
2 - 2
UCO
41%
25%
34%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2013 |
SAO
1 - 1
UCO
53%
25%
22%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2013 |
BAH
0 - 1
SAO
28%
28%
44%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2013 |
SAO
3 - 0
NAU
68%
21%
11%
|
82 | 65 | 17 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 2013 |
SAO
0 - 0
COR
42%
29%
30%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 2013 |
CRZ
0 - 2
SAO
65%
20%
15%
|
82 | 86 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2013 |
SAO
3 - 2
VIT
50%
26%
24%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |