Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 1-1
U. Católica vs São Paulo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.7%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.9%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.6%
49.7%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
15.1%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Nov. 2012 |
SAN
1 - 1
UCO
25%
23%
53%
|
75 | 57 | 18 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 1
SAN
74%
16%
9%
|
74 | 58 | 16 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 2
UCO
54%
24%
23%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
UCO
2 - 1
IND
46%
25%
29%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
UCH
0 - 0
UCO
53%
23%
24%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Nov. 2012 |
SAO
2 - 1
NAU
68%
20%
12%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
GRE
2 - 1
SAO
44%
25%
31%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
SAO
5 - 0
UCH
64%
22%
15%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
SAO
1 - 1
FLU
41%
27%
32%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2012 |
UCH
0 - 2
SAO
32%
25%
43%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | +1 |