Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 3-5
U. Católica vs Cienciano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.8%
Win probability
2
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
28.5%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
UCO
3 - 0
UCO
41%
25%
34%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2003 |
CIE
4 - 0
UCO
61%
20%
20%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | -1 |
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
UCO
3 - 1
PAL
57%
22%
21%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 2003 |
UCO
1 - 2
USF
72%
17%
10%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2003 |
CDP
1 - 2
UCO
22%
24%
55%
|
74 | 56 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Cienciano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep. 2003 |
BOL
2 - 0
CIE
35%
26%
40%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2003 |
CIE
4 - 0
UCO
61%
20%
20%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 2003 |
CIE
3 - 0
WAN
66%
20%
13%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
ALI
1 - 0
CIE
44%
25%
31%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
CIE
1 - 1
ALI
51%
24%
25%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |