União Santarém vs Alverca II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.7%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
8.4%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.9%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.5%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
19%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19%
13.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+272%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
55
1º
13º
1º
39
1º
10º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
55 | 55 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
51 | 51 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
50 | 50 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
39 | 39 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 38 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
37 | 37 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
37 | 37 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
32 | 32 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
30 | 30 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 25 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
21 | 21 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
17 | 17 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União Santarém
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
MOR
0 - 4
USA
20%
24%
55%
|
48 | 37 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
USA
2 - 0
SER
65%
21%
14%
|
47 | 40 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
USA
0 - 0
MAR
64%
21%
15%
|
47 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
PEN
1 - 3
USA
13%
22%
65%
|
46 | 31 | 15 | +1 |
| 14 Jan. 2024 |
USA
4 - 1
BEN
51%
25%
25%
|
45 | 44 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Alverca II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 2024 |
LUS
1 - 0
FCA
52%
25%
24%
|
37 | 42 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2024 |
FCA
0 - 1
MAR
44%
26%
30%
|
38 | 43 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
PEN
0 - 2
FCA
27%
23%
51%
|
37 | 28 | 9 | +1 |
| 28 Jan. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
BEN
34%
26%
41%
|
35 | 44 | 9 | +2 |
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
GOU
1 - 2
FCA
41%
23%
37%
|
34 | 30 | 4 | +1 |