UPDF vs Gaddafi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.6%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.9%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.1%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
29.9%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
-39%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UPDF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
VIP
2 - 1
UPD
70%
17%
13%
|
30 | 38 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2024 |
BUL
0 - 1
UPD
66%
20%
15%
|
28 | 38 | 10 | +2 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
UPD
2 - 0
JIN
39%
25%
36%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Feb. 2024 |
EXP
3 - 1
UPD
62%
21%
17%
|
27 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2024 |
UPD
2 - 2
NEC
34%
24%
42%
|
27 | 31 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Gaddafi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2024 |
GAD
1 - 2
KCC
27%
24%
49%
|
28 | 38 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
BRI
4 - 0
GAD
52%
23%
25%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | -2 |
| 13 Mar. 2024 |
MCF
5 - 0
GAD
55%
22%
23%
|
31 | 36 | 5 | -1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
GAD
0 - 1
NEC
45%
23%
31%
|
32 | 30 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Feb. 2024 |
JIN
1 - 1
GAD
40%
24%
36%
|
31 | 30 | 1 | +1 |