UD San Fernando vs Ibarra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.3%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.7%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
9%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+40%
+15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
51
1º
15º
3º
25
5º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UD San Fernando
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
CSU
0 - 0
UDS
24%
24%
52%
|
35 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 0
UDG
71%
17%
11%
|
35 | 23 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2023 |
ARU
1 - 0
UDS
22%
22%
56%
|
35 | 24 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 1
LPA
53%
23%
24%
|
36 | 33 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
VSB
0 - 0
UDS
25%
23%
52%
|
36 | 29 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Ibarra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 3
YAI
39%
26%
36%
|
20 | 22 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
EST
0 - 5
UDI
40%
24%
36%
|
19 | 18 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
0 - 0
TAM
16%
21%
63%
|
18 | 30 | 12 | +1 |
| 04 Feb. 2023 |
PAN
3 - 0
UDI
78%
14%
8%
|
19 | 33 | 14 | -1 |
| 28 Jan. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 0
UPR
30%
25%
46%
|
18 | 23 | 5 | +1 |