UD San Fernando vs Ibarra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.3%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.1%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.8%
3-0
10.3%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.7%
2-0
12.7%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.9%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.7%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.7%
9%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+51%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
51
1º
15º
3º
25
5º
16º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
58 | 59 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
52 | 55 |
2º
|
74.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
51 | 54 |
3º
|
74.5% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 50 |
4º
|
67.5% | |
|
5º
|
47 | 48 |
5º
|
45.5% | |
|
6º
|
46 | 47 |
6º
|
8% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 47 |
7º
|
30% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
85.5% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 39 |
9º
|
54% | |
|
10º
|
37 | 38 |
10º
|
31.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 37 |
11º
|
37.5% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 36 |
12º
|
62% | |
|
13º
|
34 | 34 |
13º
|
82.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
25 | 26 |
14º
|
70.5% | |
|
15º
|
25 | 25 |
15º
|
70.5% | |
|
16º
|
16 | 16 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UD San Fernando
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
CSU
0 - 0
UDS
24%
24%
52%
|
36 | 29 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 0
UDG
71%
17%
11%
|
36 | 24 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2023 |
ARU
1 - 0
UDS
22%
22%
56%
|
37 | 26 | 11 | -1 |
| 03 Feb. 2023 |
UDS
1 - 1
LPA
53%
23%
24%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
VSB
0 - 0
UDS
25%
23%
52%
|
37 | 30 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Ibarra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 3
YAI
39%
26%
36%
|
22 | 24 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2023 |
EST
0 - 5
UDI
40%
24%
36%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | +2 |
| 11 Feb. 2023 |
UDI
0 - 0
TAM
16%
21%
63%
|
20 | 31 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2023 |
PAN
3 - 0
UDI
78%
14%
8%
|
20 | 34 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2023 |
UDI
1 - 0
UPR
30%
25%
46%
|
19 | 24 | 5 | +1 |