União da Serra vs Arronches e Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.8%
Win probability
2.84
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.4%
5-0
3.6%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.5%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.4%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.9%
13.8%
Draw
0-0
2.3%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
13.8%
9.4%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
6.5%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+75%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
2º
10º
10º
16
11º
14º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
80% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
20% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
UDA
2 - 1
SER
35%
26%
39%
|
36 | 45 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 1
UDA
12%
18%
70%
|
36 | 21 | 15 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
LOU
0 - 0
UDA
45%
23%
32%
|
36 | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2022 |
UDA
1 - 0
PER
48%
23%
30%
|
34 | 38 | 4 | +2 |
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
COR
2 - 1
UDA
41%
22%
37%
|
35 | 33 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Arronches e Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
SAB
0 - 2
USA
21%
21%
57%
|
28 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
SER
0 - 1
SAB
71%
18%
11%
|
27 | 45 | 18 | +1 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
BEN
2 - 0
SAB
74%
16%
10%
|
27 | 42 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2022 |
SAB
1 - 0
ALC
64%
19%
17%
|
26 | 23 | 3 | +1 |
| 11 Dec. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 1
UDR
39%
22%
38%
|
27 | 30 | 3 | -1 |