União da Serra vs Mortágua analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.8%
Win probability
2.51
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.1%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.6%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.4%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.9%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
18%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
18%
18.2%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
2º
10º
10º
35
1º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
80% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
20% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
SAB
0 - 1
UDA
28%
21%
51%
|
37 | 29 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
UDA
0 - 4
OLI
17%
18%
65%
|
39 | 51 | 12 | -2 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
SER
1 - 0
UDA
41%
27%
32%
|
40 | 43 | 3 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
UDA
5 - 4
ALC
84%
11%
5%
|
39 | 24 | 15 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
UDA
5 - 1
ACD
80%
13%
7%
|
39 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
Matches
Mortágua
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
MOR
1 - 1
SER
20%
27%
53%
|
33 | 45 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
ALC
2 - 3
MOR
21%
21%
58%
|
32 | 24 | 8 | +1 |
| 18 Sep. 2022 |
MOR
4 - 0
LOU
17%
24%
59%
|
26 | 43 | 17 | +6 |
| 11 Sep. 2022 |
SAO
7 - 1
MOR
58%
24%
18%
|
27 | 36 | 9 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 2021 |
VIT
2 - 0
MOR
41%
25%
35%
|
28 | 27 | 1 | -1 |