UCF vs SMU Mustangs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.2%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.2%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
22.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
UCF
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2021 |
UCF
3 - 4
SFB
81%
12%
7%
|
33 | 18 | 15 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2021 |
TMP
0 - 3
UCF
21%
20%
59%
|
32 | 21 | 11 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2021 |
SMU
1 - 2
UCF
41%
22%
37%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2021 |
UCF
3 - 2
TUL
51%
21%
27%
|
30 | 29 | 1 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 2021 |
UCF
0 - 3
MPH
86%
10%
5%
|
32 | 14 | 18 | -2 |
Matches
SMU Mustangs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2021 |
SMU
0 - 0
TUL
47%
22%
32%
|
28 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2021 |
SFB
0 - 4
SMU
22%
20%
58%
|
27 | 19 | 8 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 2021 |
SMU
1 - 2
UCF
41%
22%
37%
|
28 | 31 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2021 |
MPH
3 - 2
SMU
13%
17%
70%
|
30 | 16 | 14 | -2 |
| 03 Oct. 2021 |
SMU
1 - 0
TMP
69%
17%
14%
|
29 | 23 | 6 | +1 |