Série D Brazil Final
Global 3-0
Tupi vs Santa Cruz analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.3%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
10%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
24.1%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.1%
21.6%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tupi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2011 |
TUP
3 - 1
OES
52%
25%
23%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2011 |
OES
0 - 3
TUP
48%
27%
25%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 2011 |
ANA
2 - 2
TUP
38%
27%
35%
|
50 | 44 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2011 |
TUP
4 - 1
ANA
56%
22%
22%
|
50 | 45 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2011 |
TUP
4 - 2
VOL
50%
26%
24%
|
51 | 50 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2011 |
CUI
1 - 2
SAN
50%
24%
26%
|
49 | 47 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 0
CUI
51%
24%
25%
|
50 | 49 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2011 |
SAN
0 - 0
TRE
50%
26%
24%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | -3 |
| 09 Oct. 2011 |
TRE
3 - 3
SAN
53%
24%
23%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2011 |
COR
0 - 0
SAN
42%
26%
32%
|
54 | 48 | 6 | -1 |