Trofense vs Varzim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.5%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.5%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
28.1%
Draw
0-0
10.1%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
<0%
0
28.1%
29.4%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.5%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
3º
9º
5º
10
1º
5º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 36 |
1º
|
49.5% | |
|
2º
|
14 | 35 |
2º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
10 | 28 |
3º
|
25% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 27 |
4º
|
20% | |
|
|
5º
|
8 | 26 |
5º
|
16.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 24 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
5 | 23 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 19 |
8º
|
21% | |
|
10º
|
5 | 16 |
9º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 15 |
10º
|
35.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
46% | 57.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
54% | 42.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Trofense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
BEL
3 - 0
TRO
53%
23%
24%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
TRO
1 - 1
SAO
58%
23%
19%
|
50 | 44 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FAF
1 - 0
TRO
29%
26%
45%
|
51 | 44 | 7 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 2
TRO
25%
26%
49%
|
50 | 41 | 9 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
TRO
1 - 0
VIL
38%
27%
34%
|
49 | 50 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Varzim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
VAR
3 - 0
FER
76%
16%
8%
|
49 | 23 | 26 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
VIL
1 - 3
VAR
59%
23%
18%
|
48 | 51 | 3 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
VAR
1 - 3
AMA
33%
28%
39%
|
49 | 55 | 6 | -1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
BRA
0 - 0
VAR
57%
24%
19%
|
49 | 52 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
VAR
1 - 0
LUS
36%
28%
36%
|
48 | 52 | 4 | +1 |