Toulouse vs Saint-Étienne analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.9%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
20.3%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
26
8º
16º
11º
18
13º
18º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
53 | 85 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 67 |
2º
|
60% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 63 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 60 |
4º
|
26% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 57 |
5º
|
20.5% | |
|
5º
|
34 | 55 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 54 |
7º
|
24% | |
|
7º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
28% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 48 |
9º
|
30% | |
|
15º
|
20 | 44 |
10º
|
19% | |
|
|
10º
|
26 | 42 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 38 |
12º
|
19% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 37 |
13º
|
23.5% | |
|
12º
|
23 | 35 |
14º
|
17% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
22.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 30 |
16º
|
19.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
18 | 30 |
17º
|
26.5% | |
|
18º
|
14 | 23 |
18º
|
77% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
96.5% | 43.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
2% | 22.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 34% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toulouse
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
MON
2 - 0
TFC
66%
20%
14%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
TFC
2 - 0
AUX
50%
24%
27%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | +1 |
| 22 Nov. 2024 |
PSG
3 - 0
TFC
77%
15%
8%
|
86 | 94 | 8 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
REN
0 - 2
TFC
60%
21%
19%
|
86 | 90 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
TFC
1 - 0
REI
47%
25%
28%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | +1 |
Matches
Saint-Étienne
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
ASS
0 - 2
MAR
16%
22%
62%
|
80 | 92 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
REN
5 - 0
ASS
68%
19%
13%
|
80 | 89 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
ASS
1 - 0
MPL
35%
25%
41%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
LYO
1 - 0
ASS
70%
18%
12%
|
80 | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
ASS
2 - 0
STR
30%
25%
46%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | +1 |