Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.9%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
46.5%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
22.4%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.1%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.6%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
5
9º
15º
9º
10
1º
5º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
12 | 80 |
1º
|
82.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 68 |
2º
|
36% | |
|
|
2º
|
10 | 64 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 58 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 58 |
5º
|
18.5% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 57 |
6º
|
18% | |
|
13º
|
4 | 56 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 47 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
|
11º
|
5 | 45 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 44 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
5 | 42 |
11º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
3 | 41 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
18º
|
1 | 38 |
13º
|
12% | |
|
15º
|
3 | 34 |
14º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 33 |
15º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 32 |
16º
|
16% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 31 |
17º
|
18% | |
|
17º
|
1 | 25 |
18º
|
52.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0.5% | 4% |
|
Champions League
|
0.5% | 46.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0.5% | 19% |
|
Europa League
|
2% | 9% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
3.5% | 6% |
|
Mid-table
|
89% | 15.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
2.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toulouse
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
NIC
1 - 1
TFC
47%
26%
28%
|
84 | 87 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
TFC
0 - 0
NAN
64%
21%
15%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
TFC
0 - 2
VAD
52%
23%
25%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
ESP
0 - 0
TFC
43%
25%
32%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
GIR
0 - 4
TFC
66%
19%
15%
|
84 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Olympique Marseille
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 2
REI
66%
21%
14%
|
90 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
BRE
1 - 5
MAR
28%
26%
46%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
AUG
1 - 3
MAR
31%
25%
43%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
SUN
2 - 2
MAR
23%
24%
53%
|
89 | 75 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
MAR
3 - 0
PAU
75%
16%
9%
|
89 | 68 | 21 | 0 |