Tonga vs Samoa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6.4%
Win probability
0.51
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.8%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
<0%
+2
1.1%
1-0
3%
2-1
1.8%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
<0%
+1
5.1%
15%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
15%
78.5%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
0-1
13.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
-1
23.4%
0-2
15.8%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
23.1%
0-3
12.3%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
16.5%
0-4
7.2%
1-5
1.7%
2-6
0.2%
-4
9.1%
0-5
3.4%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
4.1%
0-6
1.3%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.6%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.5%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-26%
-79%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2024 |
COK
1 - 3
TON
87%
10%
3%
|
7 | 34 | 27 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2017 |
VAN
5 - 0
TON
78%
14%
8%
|
17 | 44 | 27 | -10 |
| 04 Sep. 2015 |
TON
0 - 3
SAM
21%
22%
57%
|
18 | 25 | 7 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2015 |
TON
1 - 2
ASA
84%
12%
4%
|
18 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2015 |
TON
0 - 3
COK
27%
24%
49%
|
19 | 25 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2024 |
ASA
0 - 2
SAM
5%
14%
81%
|
31 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 2
PNG
38%
24%
38%
|
32 | 34 | 2 | -1 |
| 19 Jun. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 9
FIJ
18%
23%
60%
|
34 | 49 | 15 | -2 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
TAH
2 - 0
SAM
64%
21%
15%
|
35 | 45 | 10 | -1 |
| 05 Jun. 2016 |
SAM
0 - 8
PNG
18%
22%
61%
|
24 | 37 | 13 | +11 |