Tonga vs Samoa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.8%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.4%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.3%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
56.8%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
6.2%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.4%
0-3
5.9%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.5%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.1%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-24%
-87%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2015 |
TON
1 - 2
ASA
84%
12%
4%
|
20 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2015 |
TON
0 - 3
COK
27%
24%
49%
|
21 | 27 | 6 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 2015 |
FIJ
5 - 0
TON
82%
13%
5%
|
21 | 55 | 34 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2011 |
TON
2 - 1
COK
19%
23%
58%
|
20 | 28 | 8 | +1 |
| 25 Nov. 2011 |
SAM
1 - 1
TON
77%
15%
8%
|
20 | 32 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 2015 |
COK
1 - 0
SAM
46%
24%
31%
|
27 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2015 |
SAM
3 - 2
ASA
86%
11%
3%
|
27 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2012 |
NCL
9 - 0
SAM
84%
12%
5%
|
28 | 47 | 19 | -1 |
| 03 Jun. 2012 |
VAN
5 - 0
SAM
75%
16%
9%
|
29 | 43 | 14 | -1 |
| 01 Jun. 2012 |
SAM
1 - 10
TAH
12%
20%
68%
|
32 | 47 | 15 | -3 |