Taça de Portugal Semi-finals
Global 4-1
Tondela vs Mafra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.1%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
25.2%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tondela
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2022 |
FAM
2 - 1
TON
55%
24%
20%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2022 |
TON
0 - 1
SPB
14%
20%
66%
|
65 | 84 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2022 |
EST
1 - 0
TON
52%
25%
24%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | -1 |
| 07 Feb. 2022 |
TON
1 - 3
SLB
12%
18%
70%
|
66 | 88 | 22 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2022 |
POR
1 - 2
TON
44%
27%
29%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Mafra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2022 |
MAF
1 - 1
PEN
52%
26%
23%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2022 |
TRO
1 - 3
MAF
17%
26%
57%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2022 |
MAF
3 - 2
POR
43%
27%
31%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 06 Feb. 2022 |
VIL
2 - 0
MAF
31%
27%
42%
|
63 | 56 | 7 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 2022 |
LEX
2 - 0
MAF
32%
27%
41%
|
64 | 57 | 7 | -1 |