Série D Brazil Semi-finals
Global 2-1
Tombense vs Confiança analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.1%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.6%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.8%
22.1%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-15%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tombense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
TOM
2 - 0
MOT
57%
23%
20%
|
50 | 44 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
MOT
2 - 2
TOM
38%
26%
37%
|
51 | 45 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
TOM
1 - 0
MET
43%
26%
31%
|
51 | 53 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
MET
1 - 1
TOM
56%
23%
22%
|
51 | 54 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2014 |
TOM
3 - 0
LUZ
58%
24%
17%
|
51 | 48 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Confiança
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
CON
0 - 0
JAC
56%
23%
21%
|
47 | 43 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
JAC
0 - 2
CON
45%
25%
30%
|
46 | 45 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Oct. 2014 |
CON
1 - 1
CEN
51%
24%
25%
|
47 | 46 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
CEN
0 - 1
CON
46%
25%
29%
|
47 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2014 |
POR
1 - 1
CON
30%
25%
45%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | -1 |