Toluca vs Tigres UANL analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.2%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.9%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
22.3%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
2º
9º
4º
10
1º
5º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
12 | 33 |
1º
|
26.5% | |
|
1º
|
13 | 31 |
2º
|
18% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 31 |
3º
|
14% | |
|
|
6º
|
8 | 29 |
4º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
10 | 28 |
5º
|
9.5% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 26 |
6º
|
10% | |
|
9º
|
6 | 24 |
7º
|
11.5% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 24 |
8º
|
8.5% | |
|
11º
|
5 | 23 |
9º
|
6% | |
|
7º
|
7 | 22 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 21 |
11º
|
4.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 20 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
4 | 19 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 19 |
14º
|
9% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 19 |
15º
|
8.5% | |
|
12º
|
5 | 17 |
16º
|
22% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 16 |
17º
|
18.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 12 |
18º
|
50% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
73.5% | 69.5% |
|
Play-offs
|
20% | 22% |
|
Mid-table
|
6.5% | 8.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
PUM
1 - 1
TOL
44%
24%
32%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
MAZ
2 - 1
TOL
30%
25%
45%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
TOL
1 - 1
MON
55%
23%
23%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
TIJ
2 - 4
TOL
36%
25%
39%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
MAZ
1 - 3
TOL
31%
25%
44%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Tigres UANL
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
TIG
4 - 0
TIJ
54%
24%
22%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
CHI
1 - 1
TIG
46%
26%
28%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
TIG
2 - 1
MAZ
62%
23%
16%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
AUR
1 - 3
TIG
48%
24%
28%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
TIG
2 - 2
JUA
67%
19%
14%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |