Liga MX Finals Ap. Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Toluca vs Puebla analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.4%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.6%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
14.8%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.3%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-12%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2015 |
PUE
2 - 2
TOL
38%
27%
36%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2015 |
TOL
3 - 1
MON
59%
22%
20%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2015 |
CAZ
1 - 2
TOL
36%
28%
37%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2015 |
TOL
2 - 3
AME
51%
24%
26%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2015 |
CHI
1 - 0
TOL
33%
28%
39%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Puebla
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov. 2015 |
PUE
2 - 2
TOL
38%
27%
36%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 2015 |
QRO
0 - 0
PUE
52%
25%
23%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2015 |
PUE
2 - 1
TIJ
47%
26%
28%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2015 |
JAG
1 - 0
PUE
46%
26%
28%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2015 |
PUE
1 - 0
LEO
39%
25%
36%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |