Toluca vs Monterrey analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.5%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.7%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
23%
Win probability
1.14
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
8
2º
9º
4º
6
8º
17º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 34 |
1º
|
48% | |
|
2º
|
13 | 31 |
2º
|
17.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 30 |
3º
|
13% | |
|
|
7º
|
8 | 29 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 28 |
5º
|
15% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 26 |
6º
|
10.5% | |
|
6º
|
8 | 26 |
7º
|
10% | |
|
|
12º
|
6 | 26 |
8º
|
9% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 24 |
9º
|
6.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 22 |
10º
|
10% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 22 |
11º
|
5.5% | |
|
17º
|
3 | 20 |
12º
|
6% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 19 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
10º
|
7 | 19 |
14º
|
7.5% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 19 |
15º
|
10% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 19 |
16º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 17 |
17º
|
25% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 11 |
18º
|
67% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
71.5% | 41% |
|
Play-offs
|
22.5% | 35.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
6% | 23.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
TIJ
2 - 4
TOL
36%
25%
39%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
MAZ
1 - 3
TOL
31%
25%
44%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
TOL
0 - 2
AME
54%
22%
24%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2024 |
AME
2 - 0
TOL
43%
24%
33%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TOL
4 - 0
AME
53%
23%
25%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Monterrey
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2025 |
MON
1 - 1
PUE
66%
21%
13%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2024 |
MON
1 - 1
AME
46%
24%
30%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | -1 |
| 13 Dec. 2024 |
AME
2 - 1
MON
48%
25%
27%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Dec. 2024 |
MON
5 - 1
AUR
54%
23%
23%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 05 Dec. 2024 |
AUR
2 - 1
MON
45%
24%
31%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | -1 |