Liga MX Finals Ap. Quarter-finals
Global 5-2
Toluca vs Chivas Guadalajara analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.5%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
16.8%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2012 |
CHI
1 - 2
TOL
39%
28%
33%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
SNL
0 - 2
TOL
31%
28%
41%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
MON
2 - 2
TOL
58%
22%
19%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
TOL
0 - 0
MOR
47%
25%
29%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
CAZ
3 - 0
TOL
55%
24%
22%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Chivas Guadalajara
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 2012 |
CHI
1 - 2
TOL
39%
28%
33%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2012 |
CHI
0 - 2
TIJ
42%
28%
30%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
QRO
0 - 1
CHI
35%
29%
37%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2012 |
CHI
2 - 0
ATS
51%
26%
23%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2012 |
CHI
2 - 1
CHI
68%
20%
12%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |