Tocha vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
5.5%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.2%
2-0
0.6%
3-1
0.3%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1%
1-0
2.2%
2-1
1.7%
3-2
0.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
4.3%
12.4%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
12.4%
82.1%
Win probability
2.68
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
20.6%
0-2
14.1%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
22.5%
0-3
12.6%
1-4
4.7%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
18%
0-4
8.4%
1-5
2.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
11.3%
0-5
4.5%
1-6
1.1%
2-7
0.1%
-5
5.8%
0-6
2%
1-7
0.4%
2-8
0%
-6
2.5%
0-7
0.8%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.9%
0-8
0.3%
1-9
0%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tocha
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2023 |
TOC
2 - 4
REB
13%
18%
69%
|
12 | 43 | 31 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 2023 |
LUS
0 - 2
TOC
72%
17%
11%
|
10 | 24 | 14 | +2 |
| 27 Sep. 2020 |
ANC
3 - 1
TOC
62%
19%
18%
|
11 | 15 | 4 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 2017 |
TOC
1 - 2
ESM
30%
22%
49%
|
12 | 15 | 3 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2015 |
ACA
2 - 3
TOC
87%
9%
4%
|
10 | 27 | 17 | +2 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
PEN
1 - 1
POR
40%
26%
34%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
PAÇ
1 - 3
PEN
57%
24%
20%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
2 - 2
TON
36%
27%
37%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
VIZ
1 - 2
PEN
65%
21%
14%
|
62 | 72 | 10 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
PEN
4 - 3
OLI
47%
26%
27%
|
62 | 58 | 4 | 0 |