Tocha vs Lusitânia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.2%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.3%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.3%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.9%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
32.1%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+26%
+52%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tocha
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan. 2013 |
OPE
3 - 0
TOC
67%
19%
13%
|
30 | 40 | 10 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2013 |
CES
1 - 0
TOC
52%
23%
24%
|
31 | 32 | 1 | -1 |
| 06 Jan. 2013 |
TOC
2 - 0
ANA
20%
23%
58%
|
26 | 42 | 16 | +5 |
| 29 Dec. 2012 |
SAO
0 - 0
TOC
73%
16%
11%
|
26 | 38 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2012 |
TOC
0 - 1
ACV
17%
24%
59%
|
26 | 53 | 27 | 0 |
Matches
Lusitânia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2013 |
LUS
1 - 1
CIN
25%
25%
51%
|
29 | 44 | 15 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2013 |
TOU
4 - 2
LUS
66%
20%
15%
|
29 | 42 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2012 |
LUS
2 - 1
BUS
47%
24%
29%
|
28 | 29 | 1 | +1 |
| 22 Dec. 2012 |
SOU
2 - 0
LUS
45%
24%
31%
|
30 | 29 | 1 | -2 |
| 16 Dec. 2012 |
LUS
0 - 1
BEN
29%
23%
48%
|
31 | 41 | 10 | -1 |