Tocha vs AD Nogueirense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.4%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.7%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.5%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
25.8%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.1%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tocha
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
LUS
1 - 1
TOC
49%
24%
28%
|
33 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2012 |
TOC
1 - 2
ADN
50%
23%
27%
|
35 | 31 | 4 | -2 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
TOC
1 - 1
OPE
32%
26%
42%
|
34 | 43 | 9 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
PAM
1 - 1
TOC
46%
24%
30%
|
35 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
TOC
3 - 0
CRA
85%
11%
4%
|
35 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
Matches
AD Nogueirense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 2012 |
ADN
2 - 3
COI
36%
25%
40%
|
31 | 39 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2012 |
TOC
1 - 2
ADN
50%
23%
27%
|
31 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2012 |
CIN
2 - 1
ADN
62%
20%
17%
|
32 | 39 | 7 | -1 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
ADN
1 - 2
OLI
72%
17%
11%
|
33 | 22 | 11 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
OLI
1 - 0
ADN
33%
24%
43%
|
34 | 26 | 8 | -1 |