Tikvesh vs FK Vardar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.4%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.2%
18.6%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
6º
10º
7º
4
7º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
11 | 42 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 38 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
5 | 36 |
3º
|
14.5% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 34 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
2º
|
11 | 34 |
5º
|
11% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 31 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
4 | 29 |
7º
|
11.5% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 28 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 26 |
9º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 22 |
10º
|
18.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 21 |
11º
|
21.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
4 | 20 |
12º
|
36% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
1.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
11.5% | 1.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
53% | 18.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
19.5% | 24.5% |
|
Relegation
|
14.5% | 55.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tikvesh
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
RAB
3 - 1
TIK
43%
27%
30%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
TIK
0 - 0
GOS
47%
26%
26%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
BES
1 - 0
TIK
29%
26%
44%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
TIK
2 - 1
VOK
48%
25%
27%
|
57 | 55 | 2 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
FCS
1 - 0
TIK
54%
24%
22%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
FK Vardar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
NOV
0 - 2
VAR
15%
21%
63%
|
51 | 30 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
GOS
1 - 1
VAR
59%
23%
18%
|
51 | 57 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
VAR
4 - 0
GOR
31%
23%
46%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
VAR
1 - 3
VOK
34%
26%
40%
|
52 | 54 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SHK
3 - 0
VAR
68%
21%
12%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | 0 |