Thun vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.2%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.9%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.1%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
46.4%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
0-1
9.3%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.3%
0-2
7.5%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14%
0-3
4.1%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.6%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.4%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2022 |
THU
3 - 0
WIL
59%
23%
18%
|
67 | 57 | 10 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2022 |
NEX
1 - 3
THU
19%
20%
62%
|
67 | 56 | 11 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2022 |
YOB
6 - 1
THU
71%
17%
12%
|
67 | 84 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2021 |
THU
2 - 2
SCH
51%
25%
25%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2021 |
NEX
1 - 4
THU
22%
23%
55%
|
67 | 57 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2022 |
LUG
2 - 1
FCL
43%
27%
30%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2022 |
YOB
1 - 0
LUG
70%
18%
13%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 0
CHI
73%
18%
9%
|
77 | 53 | 24 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2022 |
LUG
3 - 0
FCV
51%
24%
25%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2022 |
LUG
1 - 2
BAS
21%
23%
55%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |