Thun vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.9%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21%
26.8%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.8%
35.4%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.2%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May. 2000 |
ZUR
2 - 1
THU
71%
18%
11%
|
68 | 81 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2000 |
THU
0 - 0
SIO
33%
25%
42%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2000 |
DEL
2 - 3
THU
50%
24%
26%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2000 |
THU
1 - 0
FCA
42%
25%
33%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2000 |
BEL
0 - 2
THU
63%
20%
17%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May. 2000 |
LUG
1 - 1
BEL
58%
23%
19%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 2
LUG
45%
26%
30%
|
75 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2000 |
LUG
1 - 0
BAD
72%
18%
10%
|
75 | 61 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2000 |
LAU
3 - 2
LUG
75%
15%
9%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 06 May. 2000 |
SIO
4 - 0
LUG
48%
26%
26%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |