Thun vs Aarau analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.4%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.4%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
34.3%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.9%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
76
1º
5º
2º
43
3º
7º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
THU
1 - 3
FCL
28%
24%
49%
|
66 | 78 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2023 |
THU
3 - 1
WIL
43%
25%
32%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2023 |
BEL
0 - 3
THU
15%
21%
64%
|
65 | 52 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
FCF
0 - 5
THU
3%
7%
90%
|
65 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2023 |
NEX
4 - 0
THU
20%
23%
57%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 2
WIN
39%
23%
38%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2023 |
FCA
0 - 2
STA
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2023 |
SCH
2 - 2
FCA
25%
24%
51%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2023 |
DIE
0 - 1
FCA
4%
10%
86%
|
66 | 34 | 32 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2023 |
BEL
1 - 3
FCA
13%
20%
66%
|
66 | 53 | 13 | 0 |