Thun vs Etoile Carouge analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.9%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.3%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
18.1%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
39
1º
3º
1º
31
1º
5º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
39 | 70 |
1º
|
79.5% | |
|
2º
|
35 | 60 |
2º
|
42% | |
|
5º
|
29 | 54 |
3º
|
26.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
31 | 53 |
4º
|
22% | |
|
7º
|
23 | 51 |
5º
|
20% | |
|
4º
|
29 | 51 |
6º
|
21% | |
|
6º
|
25 | 44 |
7º
|
21.5% | |
|
8º
|
21 | 43 |
8º
|
29.5% | |
|
9º
|
19 | 35 |
9º
|
29.5% | |
|
10º
|
16 | 32 |
10º
|
50.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
79.5% | 1% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
15% | 18% |
|
Mid-table
|
5.5% | 81% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
STA
1 - 6
THU
19%
23%
58%
|
77 | 61 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
THU
3 - 1
SCH
66%
20%
14%
|
77 | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
FCV
2 - 0
THU
26%
25%
49%
|
77 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2024 |
THU
2 - 3
FCL
33%
24%
42%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2024 |
BEL
0 - 0
THU
19%
24%
58%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Etoile Carouge
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2024 |
ETO
2 - 1
FCA
40%
24%
36%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2024 |
ETO
1 - 1
STA
40%
25%
35%
|
69 | 72 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2024 |
NEX
0 - 3
ETO
45%
25%
30%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | +1 |
| 04 Oct. 2024 |
ETO
3 - 1
STA
55%
23%
23%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Sep. 2024 |
STA
5 - 1
ETO
50%
24%
26%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |