Thun vs AC Bellinzona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.1%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.5%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
15.1%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+31%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
76
1º
5º
2º
42
5º
9º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2023 |
THU
1 - 1
SIO
36%
26%
38%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2023 |
STA
3 - 2
THU
28%
23%
49%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 2023 |
THU
1 - 0
SCH
58%
22%
20%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | +1 |
| 03 Nov. 2023 |
FCA
5 - 2
THU
36%
25%
40%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
THU
2 - 1
FCV
48%
24%
28%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
AC Bellinzona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
BEL
1 - 0
NEX
37%
27%
37%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
BEL
3 - 1
BAD
43%
25%
32%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | +1 |
| 18 Nov. 2023 |
BRE
4 - 0
BEL
70%
18%
12%
|
55 | 71 | 16 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 0
BEL
52%
25%
24%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
BEL
1 - 2
SIO
14%
21%
65%
|
55 | 70 | 15 | 0 |