Thonon Évian vs Saint-Étienne II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.1%
14.6%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-37%
-22%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
7
2º
12º
2º
1
10º
13º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
7 | 59 |
1º
|
69% | |
|
|
4º
|
7 | 47 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
1º
|
12 | 47 |
3º
|
16.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 44 |
4º
|
11.5% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 43 |
5º
|
13.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 42 |
6º
|
10.5% | |
|
11º
|
2 | 37 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 36 |
8º
|
14.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 36 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
|
12º
|
1 | 33 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 28 |
11º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
6 | 26 |
12º
|
24% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 20 |
13º
|
37.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 11 |
14º
|
73.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
6.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
87% | 50% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
4% | 14.5% |
|
Relegation
|
2.5% | 35.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thonon Évian
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CLE
0 - 0
THO
36%
25%
39%
|
43 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
THO
2 - 0
CDE
80%
12%
7%
|
43 | 20 | 23 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
OLY
2 - 1
THO
37%
24%
39%
|
44 | 34 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
THO
0 - 2
PFC
7%
13%
80%
|
44 | 74 | 30 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
CAN
2 - 1
THO
57%
23%
21%
|
44 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Saint-Étienne II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
SAE
1 - 2
LYO
11%
18%
70%
|
34 | 51 | 17 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
LIM
2 - 2
SAE
41%
24%
35%
|
34 | 33 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SAE
1 - 3
MAC
34%
25%
42%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
SAE
3 - 0
CDE
74%
16%
11%
|
35 | 21 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
HAL
1 - 1
SAE
28%
23%
49%
|
35 | 26 | 9 | 0 |