Thonon Évian vs Saint-Étienne II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.3%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.1%
14.6%
Win probability
0.86
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-42%
-21%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
3º
12º
6º
20
6º
13º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
5º
|
24 | 50 |
1º
|
40.5% | |
|
2º
|
26 | 47 |
2º
|
20.5% | |
|
3º
|
25 | 45 |
3º
|
19% | |
|
1º
|
26 | 44 |
4º
|
18% | |
|
4º
|
24 | 44 |
5º
|
13.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 38 |
6º
|
20% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 36 |
7º
|
13% | |
|
|
7º
|
20 | 35 |
8º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
18 | 33 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
11º
|
17 | 32 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
18 | 30 |
11º
|
16.5% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 29 |
12º
|
21% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 22 |
13º
|
28% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 22 |
14º
|
43% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
86.5% | 70.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
8% | 11.5% |
|
Relegation
|
3.5% | 18% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Thonon Évian
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CLE
0 - 0
THO
36%
25%
39%
|
45 | 36 | 9 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
THO
2 - 0
CDE
80%
12%
7%
|
44 | 22 | 22 | +1 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
OLY
2 - 1
THO
37%
24%
39%
|
45 | 35 | 10 | -1 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
THO
0 - 2
PFC
7%
13%
80%
|
45 | 74 | 29 | 0 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
CAN
2 - 1
THO
57%
23%
21%
|
46 | 52 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Saint-Étienne II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
SAE
1 - 2
LYO
11%
18%
70%
|
36 | 52 | 16 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
LIM
2 - 2
SAE
41%
24%
35%
|
36 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SAE
1 - 3
MAC
34%
25%
42%
|
37 | 43 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
SAE
3 - 0
CDE
74%
16%
11%
|
37 | 22 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
HAL
1 - 1
SAE
28%
23%
49%
|
37 | 27 | 10 | 0 |