The Strongest vs Aurora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.5%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
21.6%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
2º
5º
2º
20
1º
11º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
31 | 45 |
1º
|
61% | |
|
|
2º
|
28 | 42 |
2º
|
44% | |
|
3º
|
24 | 35 |
3º
|
30.5% | |
|
4º
|
22 | 33 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
6º
|
21 | 32 |
5º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
20 | 31 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
8º
|
20 | 31 |
7º
|
9.5% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 31 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 31 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
20 | 31 |
10º
|
7% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 27 |
11º
|
12% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 26 |
12º
|
18% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 24 |
13º
|
15.5% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 24 |
14º
|
18.5% | |
|
15º
|
11 | 19 |
15º
|
40% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 17 |
16º
|
54.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
32% | 0.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
68% | 99.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
The Strongest
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
DGV
5 - 2
STR
20%
25%
55%
|
70 | 34 | 36 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
STR
1 - 0
UDV
56%
24%
21%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2024 |
GRE
4 - 0
STR
79%
14%
8%
|
71 | 88 | 17 | -1 |
| 27 May. 2024 |
OPE
0 - 1
STR
36%
27%
37%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | +1 |
| 24 May. 2024 |
STR
3 - 2
GUA
61%
22%
18%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
IND
2 - 1
AUR
41%
28%
32%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
AUR
2 - 1
DGV
71%
18%
10%
|
70 | 34 | 36 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
UDV
2 - 2
AUR
45%
28%
27%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2024 |
AUR
1 - 1
BOL
43%
25%
32%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
GUA
1 - 1
AUR
41%
27%
31%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |