Tallinna Kalev vs Vaprus Pärnu analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
12.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.4%
12.6%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-25%
-13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
28
5º
9º
7º
25
6º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
73 | 84 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 72 |
2º
|
70% | |
|
3º
|
58 | 68 |
3º
|
40% | |
|
4º
|
56 | 67 |
4º
|
55.5% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 43 |
5º
|
73% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 40 |
6º
|
48% | |
|
|
7º
|
28 | 36 |
7º
|
31% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 35 |
8º
|
31.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
25 | 30 |
9º
|
77.5% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 21 |
10º
|
97.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
93.5% | 20% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
6.5% | 77.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tallinna Kalev
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
KUR
3 - 0
TAL
33%
25%
42%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
TAL
0 - 2
LEV
27%
25%
47%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
FLO
2 - 2
TAL
66%
20%
14%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
TAL
1 - 1
TAM
65%
20%
16%
|
65 | 55 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
TAL
1 - 1
PAI
33%
24%
44%
|
64 | 75 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 2
KAL
23%
25%
52%
|
55 | 72 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
3 - 2
KUR
38%
26%
36%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
TAM
1 - 0
PAR
49%
26%
25%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
PAI
17%
24%
58%
|
55 | 75 | 20 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
FLO
15%
19%
66%
|
55 | 77 | 22 | 0 |