Tallinna Kalev vs Vaprus Pärnu analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.08
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
12.6%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.4%
12.6%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-16%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
5º
9º
9º
35
6º
10º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
87 | 87 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
72 | 72 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
72 | 72 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
70 | 70 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
42 | 42 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
6º
|
42 | 42 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
|
7º
|
35 | 35 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
34 | 34 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
|
9º
|
31 | 31 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 15 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase (1st r
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Tallinna Kalev
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
KUR
3 - 0
TAL
33%
25%
42%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2024 |
TAL
0 - 2
LEV
27%
25%
47%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
FLO
2 - 2
TAL
66%
20%
14%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
TAL
1 - 1
TAM
65%
20%
16%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2024 |
TAL
1 - 1
PAI
33%
24%
44%
|
65 | 76 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Vaprus Pärnu
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
1 - 2
KAL
23%
25%
52%
|
56 | 73 | 17 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
3 - 2
KUR
38%
26%
36%
|
55 | 60 | 5 | +1 |
| 09 Mar. 2024 |
TAM
1 - 0
PAR
49%
26%
25%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
PAI
17%
24%
58%
|
56 | 76 | 20 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
FLO
15%
19%
66%
|
56 | 78 | 22 | 0 |