Sumgayit vs Araz PFK analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46.7%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.9%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
27%
Draw
0-0
9.2%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
26.3%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.9%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
-20%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
6
3º
8º
8º
13
2º
9º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 69 |
1º
|
58% | |
|
4º
|
11 | 57 |
2º
|
19.5% | |
|
2º
|
14 | 57 |
3º
|
21% | |
|
5º
|
11 | 51 |
4º
|
14% | |
|
|
3º
|
13 | 51 |
5º
|
14% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 50 |
6º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 47 |
7º
|
18.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
6 | 47 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 42 |
9º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
0 | 24 |
10º
|
84% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
2.5% | 4% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
3.5% | 12.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
15% | 26.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
76.5% | 57% |
|
Relegation
|
2.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sumgayit
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
SFK
3 - 1
SUM
51%
25%
24%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SUM
2 - 1
SEB
50%
25%
25%
|
71 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
TUR
1 - 0
SUM
50%
25%
25%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
SUM
2 - 0
FCK
60%
24%
17%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
FHV
0 - 0
SUM
61%
21%
18%
|
71 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Araz PFK
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
ARA
1 - 1
FKN
40%
28%
32%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
ARA
1 - 0
SHA
41%
27%
32%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
ARA
1 - 4
QAR
32%
26%
41%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 May. 2024 |
ARA
2 - 2
QAR
32%
27%
42%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | +1 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
FKQ
2 - 0
ARA
41%
27%
32%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | -1 |