Sud América vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.9%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.9%
2-0
2.6%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.8%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
4.2%
3-2
0.9%
4-3
0.1%
+1
12%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
9.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
24.3%
58.8%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
14.9%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.3%
0-2
12.3%
1-3
5.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
18.3%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
2.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
9.2%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.6%
0-5
0.9%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sud América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun. 2017 |
CER
2 - 1
SUD
56%
25%
20%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2017 |
JUV
2 - 2
SUD
49%
26%
25%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2017 |
SUD
0 - 1
RAC
44%
26%
30%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2017 |
RIV
0 - 2
SUD
64%
21%
15%
|
64 | 71 | 7 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2017 |
SUD
1 - 1
DAN
37%
28%
35%
|
64 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun. 2017 |
NAC
3 - 1
JUV
76%
17%
8%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 17 Jun. 2017 |
RAC
1 - 3
NAC
21%
25%
54%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2017 |
NAC
1 - 1
MWA
64%
21%
15%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2017 |
DAN
1 - 2
NAC
29%
27%
45%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2017 |
NAC
2 - 1
RIV
67%
20%
13%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |