Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.3%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
18%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.7%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
+14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
5º
18º
5º
2
9º
14º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 85 |
1º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 74 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 73 |
3º
|
29.5% | |
|
2º
|
7 | 72 |
4º
|
31% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 58 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 52 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 43 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 40 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
|
14º
|
2 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
15º
|
2 | 36 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 31 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 28 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 27 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
27.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
16% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
35% | 1% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
22% | 2.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
27% | 81% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 7% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 8.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stuttgart
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug. 2024 |
PRE
0 - 5
STU
12%
18%
70%
|
92 | 72 | 20 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
SCF
3 - 1
STU
32%
24%
45%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
LEV
2 - 2
STU
63%
20%
18%
|
92 | 97 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
STU
4 - 0
ATH
56%
23%
21%
|
92 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 5
STU
20%
21%
59%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
M05
1 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
WEH
1 - 3
M05
19%
22%
59%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
M05
3 - 1
MPL
55%
23%
22%
|
87 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
M05
3 - 1
PRE
62%
21%
17%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2024 |
EIN
3 - 0
M05
6%
15%
80%
|
87 | 53 | 34 | 0 |