Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.9%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.4%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.2%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
26%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
24.1%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2021 |
CAR
0 - 0
STO
56%
24%
20%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
MID
3 - 0
STO
37%
29%
34%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
STO
2 - 0
WYC
62%
23%
16%
|
70 | 58 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2021 |
STO
1 - 2
SWA
31%
27%
43%
|
71 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 Feb. 2021 |
BRE
2 - 1
STO
65%
21%
14%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar. 2021 |
DER
2 - 2
BRE
18%
24%
58%
|
65 | 80 | 15 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
DER
0 - 1
MIL
38%
28%
33%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | -1 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
BAR
0 - 0
DER
56%
24%
20%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
COV
1 - 0
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2021 |
CAR
4 - 0
DER
57%
24%
20%
|
68 | 73 | 5 | -1 |