Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.3%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11.5%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.9%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
16.6%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2008 |
STO
1 - 1
HUL
45%
27%
28%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
STO
1 - 0
WBA
43%
26%
30%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
MUD
5 - 0
STO
81%
14%
5%
|
79 | 96 | 17 | -1 |
| 11 Nov. 2008 |
STO
2 - 0
ROT
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
| 08 Nov. 2008 |
WIG
0 - 0
STO
53%
25%
23%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2008 |
BUR
3 - 0
DER
52%
26%
23%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 2008 |
DER
2 - 2
PNE
49%
25%
26%
|
70 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 2008 |
IPS
2 - 0
DER
55%
24%
21%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 15 Nov. 2008 |
DER
3 - 0
SHW
52%
24%
23%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 11 Nov. 2008 |
DER
2 - 1
LEE
52%
24%
24%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |