Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.2%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.2%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
27%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.6%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 1939 |
MUD
0 - 1
STO
51%
23%
26%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1939 |
STO
6 - 3
BIR
57%
21%
21%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 02 Jan. 1939 |
BOL
1 - 3
STO
60%
21%
20%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1938 |
MID
5 - 1
STO
68%
18%
15%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1938 |
LIV
1 - 0
STO
63%
19%
18%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 1939 |
SUN
1 - 0
DER
52%
22%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1938 |
DER
2 - 1
ASV
69%
17%
14%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1938 |
DER
2 - 1
EVE
62%
19%
19%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1938 |
EVE
2 - 2
DER
67%
17%
16%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1938 |
WOL
0 - 0
DER
65%
18%
17%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |