Stoke City vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
17%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 1906 |
STO
1 - 2
MUD
49%
23%
28%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1906 |
BOL
1 - 1
STO
78%
13%
9%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1906 |
STO
1 - 1
SHE
53%
21%
26%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
NOT
2 - 2
STO
59%
20%
20%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1906 |
ASV
1 - 0
STO
83%
10%
6%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Oct. 1906 |
DER
1 - 0
MID
68%
18%
15%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1906 |
MUD
1 - 1
DER
76%
15%
10%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 2
MAC
40%
23%
37%
|
75 | 83 | 8 | +1 |
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
BOL
1 - 0
DER
78%
13%
9%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | -1 |
| 08 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 1
BCF
57%
21%
23%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | +1 |