FC St Pauli vs Union Berlin analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.3%
2-0
6%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.5%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
20%
27.5%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.5%
38.6%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
11.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-10%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
13º
17º
15º
21
4º
15º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
54 | 86 |
1º
|
89.5% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 75 |
2º
|
83.5% | |
|
3º
|
38 | 62 |
3º
|
36% | |
|
4º
|
33 | 62 |
4º
|
33.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 56 |
5º
|
29% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 55 |
6º
|
21.5% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 51 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 49 |
9º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
29 | 48 |
10º
|
19% | |
|
8º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
23% | |
|
12º
|
26 | 38 |
12º
|
33% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 36 |
13º
|
32% | |
|
|
14º
|
21 | 36 |
14º
|
28.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
33.5% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
34.5% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
42% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
56.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
84.5% | 92% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
11.5% | 7.5% |
|
Relegation
|
4% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FC St Pauli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
0 - 2
STP
44%
23%
33%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
RTV
1 - 0
STP
33%
24%
44%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
STP
0 - 1
EIN
15%
20%
65%
|
87 | 93 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
EBT
2 - 1
STP
16%
20%
63%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
STU
0 - 1
STP
70%
17%
12%
|
86 | 94 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Union Berlin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
2 - 1
M05
31%
25%
44%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
0 - 2
AUG
48%
25%
28%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
HEI
2 - 0
FCU
40%
25%
35%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
1 - 2
HOL
57%
22%
21%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
BRE
4 - 1
FCU
43%
26%
31%
|
90 | 89 | 1 | -1 |