Sporting CP vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
74.6%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4%
4-0
6.1%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
10%
4-1
4.5%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.4%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.7%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
15.9%
9.5%
Win probability
0.75
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
6.9%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-6%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
50
1º
3º
1º
19
8º
17º
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
50 | 77 |
1º
|
74% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 71 |
2º
|
35.5% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 68 |
3º
|
34% | |
|
4º
|
37 | 65 |
4º
|
47.5% | |
|
7º
|
29 | 53 |
5º
|
43% | |
|
5º
|
35 | 53 |
6º
|
26.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
22% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 45 |
8º
|
11.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
9º
|
13% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
10º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 42 |
11º
|
14.5% | |
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
21% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
19% | |
|
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
30.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 31 |
15º
|
19.5% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
28% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 27 |
17º
|
19% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
18º
|
29.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
74% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
18% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
7% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 83% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 9% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 8% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sporting CP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
RBL
2 - 1
SCP
76%
15%
9%
|
88 | 97 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
RIO
0 - 3
SCP
24%
23%
53%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 1
SLB
48%
23%
29%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 0
FCP
52%
22%
26%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2025 |
VIT
4 - 4
SCP
42%
25%
33%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
3 - 1
AVE
62%
23%
15%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
2 - 0
FCP
21%
23%
56%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | +2 |
| 29 Dec. 2024 |
RIO
2 - 1
NAC
54%
24%
22%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2024 |
VIT
2 - 2
NAC
70%
19%
11%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 2
SLB
21%
23%
56%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |