Sporting CP vs Arouca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.1%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
8.2%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.2%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.3%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.4%
13.5%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
51
1º
3º
1º
22
12º
18º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
51 | 77 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 73 |
2º
|
40% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 67 |
3º
|
33.5% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 67 |
4º
|
43.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 54 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
5º
|
38 | 54 |
6º
|
35.5% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 48 |
7º
|
19.5% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 45 |
8º
|
15% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 45 |
9º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
25 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
11º
|
23 | 43 |
11º
|
19.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
22 | 41 |
12º
|
17.5% | |
|
12º
|
22 | 38 |
13º
|
16.5% | |
|
14º
|
19 | 34 |
14º
|
24.5% | |
|
17º
|
15 | 33 |
15º
|
20% | |
|
16º
|
17 | 30 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 27 |
17º
|
31% | |
|
18º
|
12 | 25 |
18º
|
44.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
66.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
23% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
7.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
3% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 96% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 3.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sporting CP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb. 2025 |
FCP
1 - 1
SCP
43%
24%
33%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
SCP
3 - 1
FAR
74%
16%
10%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 0
DTB
77%
15%
8%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
1 - 1
BOL
27%
24%
49%
|
88 | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
SCP
2 - 0
NAC
75%
16%
10%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 2025 |
NAC
1 - 2
ARO
36%
26%
38%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2025 |
ARO
1 - 0
MOR
38%
27%
35%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
VIT
2 - 2
ARO
65%
20%
15%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
BOA
1 - 3
ARO
33%
27%
40%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 1
GFC
45%
27%
28%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | +1 |