Sportfreunde Lotte vs Paderborn 07 II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.1%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
24.2%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.5%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+41%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
17
2º
8º
8º
10
9º
14º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
17 | 67 |
1º
|
36% | |
|
1º
|
18 | 63 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
3º
|
17 | 60 |
3º
|
17.5% | |
|
9º
|
11 | 59 |
4º
|
13.5% | |
|
5º
|
15 | 57 |
5º
|
9% | |
|
6º
|
14 | 54 |
6º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 53 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
17 | 53 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
13 | 49 |
9º
|
8% | |
|
11º
|
10 | 49 |
10º
|
12.5% | |
|
15º
|
7 | 43 |
11º
|
10% | |
|
|
10º
|
10 | 40 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
16º
|
5 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
13º
|
8 | 38 |
14º
|
13.5% | |
|
12º
|
9 | 36 |
15º
|
14% | |
|
17º
|
5 | 35 |
16º
|
13% | |
|
18º
|
5 | 34 |
17º
|
16% | |
|
14º
|
7 | 25 |
18º
|
51.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
96% | 86.5% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 13.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Sportfreunde Lotte
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
SVE
2 - 2
SPO
49%
23%
27%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
SPO
0 - 5
KSC
5%
11%
84%
|
50 | 81 | 31 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
TDO
0 - 1
SPO
40%
24%
37%
|
49 | 45 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
SPO
3 - 2
GUT
66%
19%
14%
|
49 | 42 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
KFC
0 - 2
SPO
43%
24%
34%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
Paderborn 07 II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
PAD
2 - 1
MSV
17%
22%
61%
|
46 | 61 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
WUP
1 - 4
PAD
74%
16%
10%
|
44 | 56 | 12 | +2 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
BOR
2 - 1
PAD
66%
20%
15%
|
44 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
DIE
5 - 0
PAD
60%
21%
20%
|
46 | 50 | 4 | -2 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
PAD
1 - 1
DUR
32%
26%
41%
|
46 | 52 | 6 | 0 |