Benfica Castelo Branco vs União da Serra analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.4%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.7%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
22.4%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-32%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
7º
5º
27
2º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
100% | 80% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 20% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
SER
1 - 1
BEN
45%
29%
26%
|
39 | 42 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 1
ALC
79%
14%
6%
|
39 | 20 | 19 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
LOU
1 - 3
BEN
34%
26%
39%
|
39 | 33 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
BEN
0 - 1
PER
52%
26%
23%
|
39 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
COR
2 - 0
BEN
37%
28%
36%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | -2 |
Matches
União da Serra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
MAR
1 - 0
UDA
46%
26%
28%
|
36 | 38 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
UDA
1 - 2
1DE
46%
25%
30%
|
37 | 38 | 1 | -1 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
MOR
3 - 3
UDA
40%
23%
37%
|
36 | 36 | 0 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
UDA
1 - 2
SAB
77%
14%
9%
|
37 | 25 | 12 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
UDA
2 - 1
SER
35%
26%
39%
|
35 | 43 | 8 | +2 |